Stop obsessing over horse race polls, UVA political analyst says

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) - Election Day is coming up, with just weeks separating Americans from the final results. Many are obsessively looking to polls, hoping for a hint as to what the future holds.

However, Chair of University of Virginia’s Politics Department Jennifer Lawless said now is this time to avoid obsession over the numbers and ‘polling whiplash.’

“A lot of people are getting polling whiplash right now because they’re looking at all of the different polls, and they’re looking at who’s up and looking at who’s down," Lawless said.

Current polls show close margins between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for the presidency, unlike several months ago, she said.

“When Joe Biden was still in the race and Donald Trump was polling significantly ahead of him across the board, that meant that Donald Trump really was winning, and when Kamala Harris got into the race and the margins narrowed, that means something,” Lawless said. “What I don’t think we can read too much into is going up point five, down point five, up point five, down point five.”

Lawless said which polls you rely on matter too. Green flags to her include a large sample size for the poll, meaning polls out of less populated battleground states may not be the end-all-be-all.

“In order to be able to generalize from a group of people that you survey to the broader population, you need between 1,000-2,000 people, and we typically have that for national polls,” Lawless said. “But a lot of these battleground state polls are based on only a few hundred people, and when you have only a few hundred people, there’s much more uncertainty, and there’s a much bigger room for error."

Lawless explained having a large number of respondents is not enough. The “who” is also important, so be sure to check for a likely voter screen.

“Was it ‘likely voters,’ or was it registered voters? There are far more people who are registered to vote than who actually turn out,” Lawless said.

The third green flag to Lawless is polls being able to admit when there is no clear winner, something she said might not always be appealing to pollsters, but is important. She said currently, polls are not showing a clear lead for either side.

“It’s a tight race nationally, and it’s a tight race in the battleground states," Lawless said. “We’re tied and neither the Harris nor the Trump campaigns should feel any sense of security at this point.”

With the polls not able to definitively reveal what November will bring, Lawless said it is also likely too late for an October surprise that would tip the needle significantly. It is going to be a close race, so give yourself a break and try to only check the polls every few days. She said there are more effective means of political engagement.

“It’s going to ultimately come down to who gets their people out to the polls," Lawless said. “If you want to affect an election, instead of obsessing about the polls, go out and knock on doors.”

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